{"id":536,"date":"2026-02-09T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/?p=536"},"modified":"2026-03-02T14:13:57","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T13:13:57","slug":"bitcoin-ciklus-2026-2028-kilatasok","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/bitcoin-ciklus-2026-2028-kilatasok\/","title":{"rendered":"The Next Bitcoin Cycle: What Can We Expect Between 2026-2028?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>The Next Bitcoin Cycle: 2026-2028 Outlook<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin's <strong>4-year cycles<\/strong> are one of the industry's most well-known patterns. Price movements around the halving have followed a similar arc every time so far. But will the post-2024 halving cycle follow the previous patterns, or will market maturity bring new dynamics?<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin Cycle History<\/h2>\n<h3>1st Cycle (2012 halving)<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Halving:<\/strong> November 2012 \u2013 reward: 50 \u2192 25 BTC<\/li>\n<li><strong>Peak:<\/strong> November 2013 \u2013 ~$1,100<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rise from halving to peak:<\/strong> ~9.000%<\/li>\n<li><strong>Low after peak:<\/strong> ~$170 (-85%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>2nd Cycle (2016 halving)<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Halving:<\/strong> July 2016 \u2013 reward: 25 \u2192 12.5 BTC<\/li>\n<li><strong>Peak:<\/strong> December 2017 \u2013 ~$19,800<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rise:<\/strong> ~2.900%<\/li>\n<li><strong>Low:<\/strong> ~$3,200 (-84%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>3rd Cycle (2020 halving)<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Halving:<\/strong> May 2020 \u2013 reward: 12.5 \u2192 6.25 BTC<\/li>\n<li><strong>Peak:<\/strong> November 2021 \u2013 ~$69,000<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rise:<\/strong> ~700%<\/li>\n<li><strong>Low:<\/strong> ~$15,500 (-78%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>4th Cycle (2024 halving)<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Halving:<\/strong> April 2024 \u2013 reward: 6.25 \u2192 3.125 BTC<\/li>\n<li><strong>Peak so far:<\/strong> Historic highs, levels above $100,000<\/li>\n<li><strong>Question:<\/strong> When and where will the peak be?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>The Theory of Diminishing Returns<\/h2>\n<p>The cycles show a clear trend: <strong>each cycle brings a smaller percentage increase<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>9,000% \u2192 2,900% \u2192 700% \u2192 ???<\/li>\n<li>If the trend continues, the 4th cycle's peak increase could be 200-300% from the halving<\/li>\n<li>This is still significant \u2013 but not the \"1000x\" many expect<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>What Supports the Bullish Scenario?<\/h2>\n<h3>Supply Side<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>A <strong>halving<\/strong> reduced new supply \u2013 daily ~450 BTC vs. previous ~900<\/li>\n<li>The <strong>ETFs<\/strong> buy more BTC daily than miners produce<\/li>\n<li>A <strong>long-term holder<\/strong> (LTH) supply at record levels \u2013 few want to sell<\/li>\n<li><strong>MicroStrategy<\/strong> and other companies are continuously buying<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Demand Side<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>The <strong>institutional capital<\/strong> (through ETFs) provides stable demand<\/li>\n<li>A <strong>interest rate cuts<\/strong> favor risky assets<\/li>\n<li>A <strong>Bitcoin strategic reserve<\/strong> narrative from states and companies<\/li>\n<li>Developing countries' <strong>inflation<\/strong> is driving capital toward Bitcoin<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>What Supports the Bearish Scenario?<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Recession risk:<\/strong> A global economic slowdown would affect all risky assets<\/li>\n<li><strong>Regulatory surprise:<\/strong> Unexpected bans or restrictions<\/li>\n<li><strong>Geopolitical shock:<\/strong> War, sanctions, energy crisis<\/li>\n<li><strong>Profit-taking:<\/strong> Early ETF buyers may sell near the peak<\/li>\n<li><strong>Altcoin rotation:<\/strong> Money flowing from BTC to altcoins could reduce BTC dominance<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Possible Scenarios 2026-2028<\/h2>\n<h3>Bullish Scenario<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>First half of 2026: cycle peak, $150,000-$250,000 range<\/li>\n<li>Second half of 2026 \u2013 2027: correction, consolidation<\/li>\n<li>2028: new halving (reward: 3.125 \u2192 1.5625 BTC), beginning of a new cycle<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Supercycle Scenario<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Institutional capital and ETFs break the 4-year cycle<\/li>\n<li>Continuous, slower rise with corrections, but without a major collapse<\/li>\n<li>Bitcoin \"matures\" \u2013 lower volatility, more stable trend<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Bearish Scenario<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Macroeconomic crisis drags down crypto assets<\/li>\n<li>60-70% correction from the peak \u2013 even ETFs don't fully protect against it<\/li>\n<li>The bear market lasts 12-18 months, then a new base forms<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>In Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin cycles have been surprisingly consistent so far \u2013 but <strong>the past is no guarantee of the future<\/strong>. The post-2024 halving cycle is the first in which institutional capital (ETFs) and state interest (strategic reserves) are dominant factors.<\/p>\n<p><em>Bitcoin's future cannot be predicted \u2013 but preparation is possible. A plan, diversification, and controlling greed: these three things separate the successful investor from the one who buys at the top and sells at the bottom.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u26a0\ufe0f Legal disclaimer:<\/strong> This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions are made at your own risk.<\/p>\n<p><!-- IMAGE_PROMPT: Family Guy cartoon style illustration of Peter Griffin on a roller coaster shaped like a Bitcoin price chart, going through the 4 cycles - each hill getting taller but with diminishing percentage gains shown on signs, Stewie at the controls of the roller coaster with a \"Halving\" lever, Brian selling cotton candy labeled \"ETF shares\" to passengers, a crystal ball at the end of the ride showing a question mark for the next cycle, Cleveland falling off at the top screaming \"I told you it was too high!\" --><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 Bitcoin ciklus: 2026-2028 kil\u00e1t\u00e1sok A Bitcoin 4 \u00e9ves ciklusai az ipar\u00e1g egyik legismertebb mint\u00e1zata. A halving (felez\u00e9s) k\u00f6r\u00fcli \u00e1rfolyammozg\u00e1sok eddig minden alkalommal hasonl\u00f3 \u00edvet rajzoltak. De vajon a 2024-es halving ut\u00e1ni ciklus is k\u00f6veti a kor\u00e1bbi mint\u00e1kat, vagy a piac \u00e9retts\u00e9ge \u00faj dinamik\u00e1t hoz? A Bitcoin ciklusok t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelme 1. ciklus (2012 halving) Halving: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":582,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,1],"tags":[175,21,4,150,132,156,117,136],"class_list":["post-536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-kereskedes","tag-altcoin","tag-banyaszat","tag-bitcoin","tag-etf","tag-halving","tag-piac","tag-profitabilitas","tag-szabalyozas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/536","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=536"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/536\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":583,"href":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/536\/revisions\/583"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/582"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=536"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=536"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=536"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}