{"id":3992,"date":"2026-06-16T03:00:21","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T02:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/?p=3992"},"modified":"2026-06-16T10:24:56","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T09:24:56","slug":"bitcoin-66-014-el-meg-a-4-eves-halving-ciklus-vagy-csak-deformalodott","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kriptoblog.hu\/en\/bitcoin-66-014-el-meg-a-4-eves-halving-ciklus-vagy-csak-deformalodott\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin at $66,014: Is the 4-Year Halving Cycle Dead or Just Deformed?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\nBitcoin at $66,014: Is the 4-Year Halving Cycle Dead or Just Deformed?\n<\/p>\n

\nThe past week reopened an old wound in crypto discourse: is Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle still alive, or do we just keep referencing it out of habit? BTC sits at $66,014 (CoinGecko, June 16, 2026), up 0.5% over the past 24 hours. Total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.35 trillion, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $1.32 trillion \u2014 a 56.5% dominance share. That dominance ratio alone reveals something most cycle-debate participants overlook: by the classic playbook, altcoin season should be raging by now \u2014 and it isn't.\n<\/p>\n

This week brought several seemingly contradictory forecasts. Anthony Scaramucci expects a Q4 rally (CoinTelegraph, March 22, 2026), a veteran analyst points to a $53,000 BTC target for the cycle's closing stage (NewsBTC, June 6, 2026), and just four days later another analyst sketches out a $150,000 scenario across four different paths (NewsBTC, June 10, 2026). This dispersion isn't noise \u2014 it's a signal. The market doesn't know which model still applies.<\/h2>\n

\nHa a tank\u00f6nyvet k\u00f6vetj\u00fck: 2024 \u00e1prilisi halving + 12-18 h\u00f3nap = 2025 v\u00e9ge, 2026 els\u0151 fele a ciklus cs\u00facsa. A $66 014-es jelenlegi szint ett\u0151l f\u00e9ny\u00e9vekre van \u2014 egy olyan szakaszban kellene lenn\u00fcnk, ahol a parabolikus emelked\u00e9s \u00e9s az euf\u00f3ria domin\u00e1l. Helyette egy h\u00f3napok \u00f3ta tart\u00f3 konszolid\u00e1ci\u00f3t l\u00e1tunk, amit az AMBCrypto a h\u00e9ten egyenesen „kereslet-tesztnek” nevezett: a halving ut\u00e1ni szakaszt m\u00e1r nem a k\u00edn\u00e1lati sokk, hanem a lassul\u00f3 likvidit\u00e1s \u00e9s a v\u00e1ltoz\u00f3 piaci szerkezet alak\u00edtja.\n<\/p>\n

\nBy the textbook: April 2024 halving + 12-18 months = late 2025 to early 2026 as the cycle peak. The current $66,014 level is light-years away from that \u2014 we should be in a phase dominated by parabolic moves and euphoria. Instead, we've been watching a months-long consolidation, which AMBCrypto bluntly labeled a \"demand test\" this week: the post-halving phase is no longer shaped by supply shock but by slowing liquidity and shifting market structure.\n<\/p>\n

My own reading: based on lived experience across past cycles, public discourse has always overweighted the halving, and demand \u2014 particularly institutional demand \u2014 has consistently been the better predictor. That hasn't changed. What's different now is that, thanks to ETFs, demand is finally measurable on a daily basis.<\/h2>\n

\nItt j\u00f6n az, amit szerintem a piac nagy r\u00e9sze m\u00e9g mindig f\u00e9lre\u00e9rt. A 56,5%-os BTC-dominancia a $66 014-es \u00e1r mellett nem semleges adat. A kor\u00e1bbi ciklusok mint\u00e1zata szerint a cs\u00facs k\u00f6zel\u00e9ben a dominanci\u00e1nak 40-45% k\u00f6rny\u00e9k\u00e9re kellene cs\u00f6kkennie, ahogy a t\u0151ke \u00e1t\u00e1ramlik az altcoinokba \u2014 ez volt mindig a „v\u00e9gj\u00e1t\u00e9k” tipikus jele.\n<\/p>\n

\nHere's what I think most of the market still misreads. A 56.5% BTC dominance at $66,014 isn't a neutral data point. The historical pattern says dominance should fall toward 40-45% near the cycle peak as capital rotates into altcoins \u2014 that's always been the classic \"endgame\" tell.\n<\/p>\n

\nA mi vegyes tapasztalataink itt is \u00f3vatoss\u00e1gra intenek: 2017-ben \u00e9s 2021-ben is voltak elemz\u0151k, akik az altcoin-szezon „elmarad\u00e1s\u00e1t” j\u00f3solt\u00e1k \u2014 azt\u00e1n m\u00e9gis bek\u00f6vetkezett, csak k\u00e9s\u0151bb \u00e9s gyorsabban, mint v\u00e1rtuk. Nem \u00e1ll\u00edtjuk, hogy nem j\u00f6het most is \u2014 de t\u00e9ved\u00e9s lenne biztosra venni a r\u00e9gi forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvet. Ez nem p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi tan\u00e1cs, csak a mi jelenlegi olvasatunk; mindenki a saj\u00e1t helyzet\u00e9re alkalmazza, a saj\u00e1t felel\u0151ss\u00e9g\u00e9re.\n<\/p>\n

Our own mixed track record demands caution here: in both 2017 and 2021, analysts predicted altcoin season would \"fail to arrive\" \u2014 and yet it eventually did, later and faster than expected. We're not claiming it can't happen this time \u2014 but it would be a mistake to take the old script as gospel. This isn't financial advice, just our current read; apply it to your own situation at your own risk.<\/h2>\n

\nScaramucci, a SkyBridge alap\u00edt\u00f3ja m\u00e1rciusban azt mondta a CoinTelegraphnak, hogy a n\u00e9gy\u00e9ves ciklus „m\u00e9g j\u00e1t\u00e9kban van”, \u00e9s Q4-re emelked\u00e9st v\u00e1r. Ezzel szemben a NewsBTC \u00e1ltal j\u00fanius 6-\u00e1n id\u00e9zett veter\u00e1n elemz\u0151 $53 000-es szintet jel\u00f6lt meg a ciklus z\u00e1r\u00f3 szakasz\u00e1ra \u2014 ami a jelenlegi $66 014-r\u0151l nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l 20%-os es\u00e9st jelentene.\n<\/p>\n

\nScaramucci, founder of SkyBridge, told CoinTelegraph in March that the four-year cycle is \"still in play\" and expects upside in Q4. By contrast, the veteran analyst quoted by NewsBTC on June 6 flagged $53,000 as the target for the cycle's closing stage \u2014 which would represent roughly a 20% drop from the current $66,014.\n<\/p>\n

\nA geopolitikai fesz\u00fclts\u00e9gre a m\u00falt h\u00e9ten m\u00e1r r\u00e9szletesen kit\u00e9rt\u00fcnk (l\u00e1sd kor\u00e1bbi cikk\u00fcnk: Bitcoin 65 510 doll\u00e1ron \u2014 az US-Ir\u00e1n memorandum kriptot\u00e9tjei<\/a>) \u2014 ez a sz\u00e1l az\u00f3ta sem sz\u00e1llt el a piacr\u00f3l, \u00e9s tov\u00e1bbra is r\u00e9szben magyar\u00e1zza, mi\u00e9rt nem indult be a kock\u00e1zati \u00e9tv\u00e1gy.\n<\/p>\n

We covered the geopolitical tension in detail last week (see our prior coverage on the US-Iran memorandum and its crypto implications) \u2014 that thread hasn't dissipated from the market, and it still partly explains why risk appetite hasn't fired up.<\/h2>\n

\nDead or Deformed? The New Face of the 4-Year Cycle in 2026\n<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. ETF-\u00e1raml\u00e1sok<\/strong> \u2014 els\u0151 ciklus, ahol int\u00e9zm\u00e9nyi term\u00e9ken kereszt\u00fcl lehet napi szinten venni \u00e9s eladni a BTC-t. Ez sim\u00e1bb, kisz\u00e1m\u00edthat\u00f3bb t\u0151ke\u00e1raml\u00e1st \u00edg\u00e9r, de \u00e9rz\u00e9kenyebb\u00e9 tesz a makro-kamatp\u00e1ly\u00e1ra.<\/li>\n
  2. BTC-dominancia ragad\u00e1sa<\/strong> \u2014 ha 50% felett marad, akkor „altcoin-szezon” helyett szelekt\u00edv, narrat\u00edva-vez\u00e9relt rot\u00e1ci\u00f3t l\u00e1tunk majd (AI-tokenek, RWA, esetleg DeFi-blue chipek), nem a klasszikus mindenre-felmegy f\u00e1zist.<\/li>\n
  3. Likvidit\u00e1si makro<\/strong> \u2014 a glob\u00e1lis M2 \u00e9s a USD-likvidit\u00e1s 2026 m\u00e1sodik fel\u00e9ben d\u00f6nt majd arr\u00f3l, hogy a $66 014 padl\u00f3 vagy plafon lesz.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \nEz az \u00faj arc nem szebb \u00e9s nem cs\u00fany\u00e1bb a r\u00e9gin\u00e9l, csak m\u00e1s. \u00c9s pszichol\u00f3giailag f\u00e1raszt\u00f3bb: nincs benne a klasszikus euf\u00f3rikus parabola, ami p\u00e1r h\u00e9t alatt rendezi a k\u00e9rd\u00e9seket. A piac t\u00fcrelmetlens\u00e9ge \u2014 a „mi\u00e9rt nem megy\u00fcnk m\u00e1r?” \u2014 ezt a deform\u00e1ci\u00f3t nem szereti, \u00e9s pont ez a t\u00fcrelmetlens\u00e9g az, amit a fegyelmezett befektet\u0151 a saj\u00e1t jav\u00e1ra ford\u00edthat.\n<\/p>\n

    According to CoinGecko, XRP currently holds a market capitalization of approximately $77.15 billion. Despite minimal 24-hour volatility (-1.7%), XRP's role within the Ripple ecosystem is fundamental regarding its function as a liquidity bridge. XRP is not just an asset; it is a protocol that facilitates rapid exchange between different currencies, which is essential for the global expansion of stablecoins.<\/h2>\n

    \nMit \u00fczennek egy\u00fctt ezek a h\u00edrek? El\u0151sz\u00f6r is azt, hogy a piac \u00e9rzelmileg egy nagyon k\u00e9nyelmetlen szakaszban van: nem el\u00e9g lent ahhoz, hogy p\u00e1nik legyen, \u00e9s nem el\u00e9g fent ahhoz, hogy FOMO. Az ilyen szakaszokat t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmileg a fegyelmezett kereslet-\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9s \u00e9s az egyszer\u0171 unalom jellemzi \u2014 ut\u00f3bbi pont arra j\u00f3, hogy elriassza a r\u00f6vidt\u00e1v\u00fa szerepl\u0151ket. A „mi\u00e9rt nem t\u00f6rt\u00e9nik semmi?” \u00e9rz\u00e9s sokszor maga a t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u00e9s.\n<\/p>\n

    \nM\u00e1sodszor: a $66 014 k\u00f6r\u00fcli \u00e1r nem semleges sz\u00e1m. A 56,5%-os dominancia mellett ez a szint a teljes kripto-piac kock\u00e1zati \u00e9tv\u00e1gy\u00e1nak indik\u00e1tora. Ha innen lefel\u00e9 szakad \u2014 a $53 000-es t\u00e9zis fel\u00e9 \u2014, az nem a halving-ciklus hal\u00e1l\u00e1t fogja jelenteni, hanem azt, hogy a makro-likvidit\u00e1s szigor\u00fabb, mint amire b\u00e1rki sz\u00e1m\u00edtott. Ha innen felfel\u00e9 t\u00f6r \u2014 a $150 000-es forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv fel\u00e9 \u2014, akkor sem az\u00e9rt, mert a halving „k\u00f3dolta” be, hanem mert az ETF-kereslet \u00e9s a glob\u00e1lis likvidit\u00e1s egy\u00fctt mozdulnak.\n<\/p>\n

    \nHarmadszor \u2014 \u00e9s ezt \u00e9rdemes \u0151szint\u00e9n kimondani: a mi olvasatunk is csak egy olvasat. A piac kisz\u00e1m\u00edthatatlan, \u00e9s az elm\u00falt \u00e9vek alatt nek\u00fcnk is voltak vegyes, s\u0151t t\u00e9ves h\u00edv\u00e1saink. Ez\u00e9rt nem mondunk soha „biztos” emelked\u00e9st vagy es\u00e9st; csak megosztjuk, hogyan tessz\u00fck le mi a k\u00e9rd\u00e9st, a saj\u00e1t felel\u0151ss\u00e9g\u00fcnkre \u2014 ahogy ti is a saj\u00e1totokra d\u00f6nt\u00f6t\u00f6k.\n<\/p>\n

    \nA n\u00e9gy\u00e9ves ciklus teh\u00e1t nem halt meg, csak \u00e1t\u00f6lt\u00f6z\u00f6tt. A k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 hetek nem arr\u00f3l fognak sz\u00f3lni, hogy a halving „m\u0171k\u00f6dik-e”, hanem arr\u00f3l, hogy a $66 014-es szint mellett ki, mennyit, \u00e9s mi\u00e9rt hajland\u00f3 megvenni. A kereslet besz\u00e9l \u2014 a k\u00e9rd\u00e9s csak az, hogy meg akarjuk-e hallani.\n<\/p>\n

    Sources<\/h2>\n